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tam1MI
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
558 Posts |
 Posted - 03/02/2006 : 11:19:42 AM
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Guess I should get in my picks...
BEST PICTURE
Will win and should win: CRASH
Yeah, I know, everyone and their brother is saying BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN is a lock to win, but it has seriously gone off the boil buzz-wise and there is a growing backlash against it. further, CRASH seems to be getting the "I'm-voting-for-it-but-it-has-no-chance" response from a lot of people in the Academy. I think it's going to pull off an upset on Oscar night.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
Should win: CRASH
Actors dominate the Academy and actors love to award other actors, especially in the directing and writing categories. So George Clooney is going to join the ranks of Robert Redford, Mel Gibson, and Kevin Costner - actors who never won a acting Oscar but brought home the little gold man for their directing work.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman - CAPOTE
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix - WALK THE LINE
Oscar voters just looooove to toss awards at solid character actors who nab lead roles (see Abraham, F. Murray and Kingsley, Ben). This year is going to be no exception - I expect Hoffman has this award sewn up. Poor Joaquin Phoenix is going to have to wait until he's old & grey before he gets an Academy Award, the Oscar voters (many of whom are senior citizens themselves), don't look too kindly on "young whippersnappers".
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Felicity Huffman - TRANSAMERICA
Should win: Reese Witherspoon - WALK THE LINE
They've got to fend off the accusations of homophobia somewhere, and this is where they will do it. Plus, Oscar just loves gourgeous actresses who uggo themselves up for a role (See Theron, Charlize, and Kidman, Nicole), especially if they throw a little gender-bending into the mix (see Hunt, Linda, and Swank, Hillary). The much more deserving Reese Witherspoon is going to get left in the dust here.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win and should win: Paul Giamatti - CINDERELLA MAN
Oscar will make up for it's snub of Giamatti last year by honoring him this year (the ironclad "One Year Later" rule), and will make up for it's overall snub of CINDERELLA MAN by homoring it here. Fortunately, Giamatti is a truly deserving choice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Michelle Williams - BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN
Should win: Rachel Weisz - THE CONSTANT GARDENER
I expect the obligatory BROKEBACK Oscar to get awarded here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: CRASH
Should win: GOOD NIGHT, AND GOOD LUCK
Especially if it doesn't get homored for Best Picture, CRASH is a lock here. The Screenplay categories are where Oscar traditionally honors the quirky, offbeat, independent films they don't have the huevos to give Best Picture to.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win and should win: CAPOTE
Why is CAPOTE a lock to win? Because it's author is one Dan Futterman, who also happens to be (you guessed it), an actor...
BEST ANIMATED FILM
Will win and should win: WALLACE & GROMIT IN THE CURSE OF THE WERE-RABBIT
BEST SPECIAL EFFECTS
Will win: WAR OF THE WORLDS
Should win: THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH AND THE WARDROBE or KING KONG
Yeah, I kind of cheated here. but I think the two stronger contenders in this category will knock each other out, leaving the way open for the Foghorn Martian movie to take the prize.
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Triviachamp
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
254 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 1:27:38 PM
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I think your Picture, Director, Actress, Supp. Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Visual effects (not "Special" effects by the way) predictions are quite wrong, Tami. But I think you will be right with Supporting Actor, everyone seems to be going for Clooney, since Giamatti has won the SAG and BFCA.
Brokeback has won pretty much everything, is Important and has the most noms. Crash wasn't even nominated at the Golden Globes. Lee and the script won't be losing either. Where is the proof of Brokeback's weakness? The SAG? Winning ensemble was never likely for Brokeback and is never a good predictor. A SAG shutout didn't stop the English Patient or Gladiator. Every frontrunner gets a backlash but it usually fails. So where is the proof of the Brokelash? I think the entertainment reporters just have too much time on their hands.
Witherspoon has won everything. Huffman is over forty leaving Witherspoon the Hot Young Thing they love to award. Plus Transamerica isn't as well regarded as say Monster's Ball, Monster or Boys Don't Cry. At least I hope so since I dread the thought of a Disparate Whorewife winning the Oscar.
Weisz has won the Globe and SAG. This combination almost never loses. Plus Williams doesn't have a lot of screentime. |
Edited by - Triviachamp on 03/02/2006 1:43:34 PM |
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ELOrocks17
Preeminent Apostolic Prelate of the Discipleship of Jabootu
USA
131 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 1:58:06 PM
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I have said it before, and I will say it again: How many awards do these hollywood idiots need? I mean we have the Emmys, the Oscars, the SAG awards, Peoples choice awards, Cannes, Peabody awards..et al. Did I miss any? Good lord! No wonder Hollywood idiots have such lofty egos. Isn't it enough theese "Actors" get millions for just bieng in a movie? Now we have to give them awards for doing thier job?
"Oh my...that is quite toxic!"-Weyoun (DS9) |
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Triviachamp
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
254 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 1:59:29 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by ELOrocks17
Now we have to give them awards for doing thier job?
"We" don't give them awards. |
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ELOrocks17
Preeminent Apostolic Prelate of the Discipleship of Jabootu
USA
131 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 2:04:07 PM
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P.S. I heard that each "winner" will get a goodie bag worth $100,000 worth of crap like handmade leather blankets, watches, free vacations to Hawaii, credit cards, new cell phones, etc. Do these people really need that?
"Oh my...that is quite toxic!"-Weyoun (DS9) |
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tam1MI
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
558 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 3:14:11 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by Triviachamp
I think your Picture, Director, Actress, Supp. Actress, Adapted Screenplay and Visual effects (not "Special" effects by the way) predictions are quite wrong, Tami.
Well, heck, it isn't any fun unless you stick your neck out! ;)
Consider mine well and truly stuck. |
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zombiewhacker
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
1475 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 4:04:18 PM
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There's always the issue of vote-splitting to be considered. I look back to when Tommy Lee Jones w... w... (excuse me, this is still difficult) won the Best Supporting Actor for The Fugitive...
... excuse me for just a moment... AAAAAAUGH!!!!... thanks I feel better now...
Anyway, I wonder whether voters actually believed his was the best choice, or was it because his competition was so incredible that they ended up splitting the vote between them: Ralph Fiennes for Schindler's List, Peter Postlethwaite for In the Name of the the Father, John Malkovich for In the Line of Fire, and Leonard di Caprio for What's Eating Gilbert Grape.
The one category where I see even the remotest danger of that really happening this year is again for the Best Supporting Actor category. In all likelihood, Giamatti will blaze on through and win without a hitch; on the other hand, it's possible that his talented co-stars might leech off enough votes from Giamatti to score an upset.
The other categories seem to be one or two horse races. Anybody happen to know what the Vegas odds are?
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Edited by - zombiewhacker on 03/02/2006 9:47:39 PM |
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tam1MI
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
558 Posts |
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Triviachamp
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
254 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 5:17:36 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by zombiewhacker
There's always the issue of vote-splitting to be considered.
I never really understood how different people from different movies can split votes. I guess this is a term that has been thrown around so often that it becomes embedded in the brain. Just like how winning anything is a "sweep" as supposed to winning say winning 8 or more. |
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TheFoywonder
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
833 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 5:28:13 PM
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Sorry Zombie but I have to disagree with you regarding Tommy Lee Jones. He was in top form in The Fugitive and completely owned that film. It was even a case of most critics agreeing it was top notch performance and talking Oscar about the kind of role that rarely gets noticed by the Academy.
Now if you want to talk about vote splitting leading to someone undeserving winning an Oscar than look no further than Marisa Tomei for My Cousing Vinny. It was a really fun role, I have qualms with her being nominated, but like the rest of the world I was completely stunned that she won. All the other nominees were either British or Australian if I remember correctly and (aside from the long standing rumor that Jack Palance read the wrong name) that could have easily led to a ton of vote splitting.
Now Playing in Foyeurism at Schlocktoberfest.Com:
BALLAD OF THE NASTY HERO - An overlooked gem of 80s action cheese gets it due
Plus: B-WARE THE BLOG is alive at http://www.livejournal.com/users/foywonder |
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Triviachamp
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
254 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 6:30:49 PM
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| Tomei probably won because she was the only American nominated and was a co-lead. |
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Prankster
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
Canada
727 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 8:24:59 PM
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No, she won because Jack Palance read the card wrong! I read it on the internets, it must be true!
Those Hollywood idiots!
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Check out my online comics at [URL]http://www.phantasmictales.com[/URL]! |
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zombiewhacker
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
1475 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 10:02:19 PM
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Foywonder, if you enjoyed Jones' performance that much, I won't waste too much time arguing with you. To me, it was Jones on auto-pilot, playing the same laid-back good ol' boy he's playing in movies for twenty years. Heck, I enjoyed his perfomance more in Black Moon Rising than in The Fugitive.
Di Caprio's work in Gilbert Grape was astonishing: one of the few times I've ever seen an actor play a mentally handicapped person and not look like he was acting. Postlethwaite "owned" every seen he was in. Fiennes' performance made him a star. Malkovich's performance was the "least" of the other four, but still deserving.
Triviachamp: by split I mean this. Midnight Cowboy had two terrific performances by Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight. Both were nominated. Now if only Hoffman's nominated, he's the clear favorite and could take (a made-up figure) 60% of the Oscar vote. But Voight is nominated, too. While Voight's role isn't as showy as Hoffman's, he's still solid as a rock and ended up leeching 25% of the vote. That leaves Hoffman with 35% of the total. So who wins the Oscar that year? John Wayne with 40% for True Grit. Now did the "Let's Award the Fogey" factor play into it, too? Undoubtedly. But I don't think anyone would argue that Hoffman (or Voight) would have had a better shot at one-upping the Duke if he didn't also have stiff competition from his own co-star. |
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Triviachamp
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
254 Posts |
Posted - 03/02/2006 : 10:33:29 PM
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quote:
Originally posted by zombiewhacker
Triviachamp: by split I mean this. Midnight Cowboy had two terrific performances by Dustin Hoffman and Jon Voight.
But Paul Giamatti is not competing with a costar. Nor did Tommy Lee Jones. |
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TheFoywonder
Holy Cardinal and Five Star General of the Righteous Knighthood of Jabootu
USA
833 Posts |
Posted - 03/03/2006 : 12:35:26 AM
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Zombie, if you want proof of how sharp Jones was in THE FUGITIVE then just try sitting through the pseudo-sequel U.S. MARSHALS. Same role he won the Oscar for and yet you could tell he was on total autopilot; completely devoid of any of the spark he gave the character in THE FUGITIVE.
And I'm willing to bet this is how it goes down on Sunday night:
PICTURE: CRASH (don't be surprised if this upsets Brokeback)
ACTOR: Hoffman (a total lock)
ACTRESS: Witherspoon (Huffman might but doubtful)
Director: Ang Lee (in lieu of giving Best Pic to Brokeback)
SUPP. ACTOR: Paul Giamati (consolation for last year's snub)
SUPP. ACTRESS: Keener (tough call on this one)
There's usually at least one surprise win in the acting categories and I wouldn't be completely shocked to see Amy Adams get Best Supporting Actress or William Hurt sneak in and take Best Supporting Actor.
Now Playing in Foyeurism at Schlocktoberfest.Com:
BALLAD OF THE NASTY HERO - An overlooked gem of 80s action cheese gets it due
Plus: B-WARE THE BLOG is alive at http://www.livejournal.com/users/foywonder |
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